A highly-respected obstetric consultant believes baby deaths will more than double if maternity services move to Carlisle – and accused bosses of valuing a West Cumbrian life at £140,000.

John Eldred has set out a detailed argument explaining why he believes the Success Regime’s preferred option is unsafe.

He also warns of a surge of “Moota” babies, with the chance of out-of-hospital births rising as more high-risk mothers are sent along the A595 to have their babies, increasing the chance of deaths.

A public meeting on Tuesday in Whitehaven was part of the Success Regime’s controversial consultation into proposed service cuts.

In a letter to the We Need West Cumberland Hospital protest group, Mr Eldred, who worked at the hospital for nearly 20 years, predicts that a total number of 15 babies will die if the Success Regime’s preferred option goes ahead.

“The total number of baby deaths under Option 2 will be, by my reckoning, 15. Over a doubling of the rate we have at present.

“The proposals will save £2.1m so the Success Regime has priced a West Cumbrian life at £140,000,” he said.

“The NICE report back in 2006 said we should be prepared to pay £300,000 to £810,000 pounds to avoid a single perinatal death.”

Mr Eldred sets out in detail how he reaches that total: “The perinatal mortality rate in West Cumbria is currently approximately five baby deaths per 1000 deliveries.

“That sadly meant, for example, eight baby deaths in 2015, two new-born deaths and six stillbirths.”

He goes on to explain that if the obstetric unit in Whitehaven closes as planned, leaving only a midwife-led unit at the West Cumberland Hospital, he estimates 700 “high-risk” women a year will need to travel in labour from West Cumbria to Carlisle.

The remaining 300 will labour in the midwifery unit in Whitehaven.

Mr Eldred said the need to travel for obstetric care is the reason for the rise in mortality.

He referred to the 2013 Combier paper, which he says suggests the perinatal mortality rate will be increased by a factor of 1.85 with a travel time greater than 46 minutes.

“That represents 13 baby deaths,” he said.

“At least part of this is explained by the high mortality rate associated with out-of-hospital deliveries.

“I have suggested 10 per cent, or 70 women a year, from this group are at risk – our ‘La’al Moota babies’.”

Mr Eldred then refers to another study, the 2014 Pilkington paper, showing the risk out out-of-hospital deliveries relating to transfers over 45km, which he predicts would result in three baby deaths.

He adds: “The other increased mortality in this group is explained by the problems with transfer and an inability to monitor or manage obstetric complications during that time.”

Again he uses evidence, this time from the 2014 Paranjothy paper, which identified a 1.15 times increase risk of perinatal mortality with every additional 15 minutes travelling time.

Of the 300 women a year labouring in the Whitehaven midwifery unit, he predicts 30 per cent, about 100 in total, will need transferred to Carlisle.

He added: “I have given this group a 1/1000 perinatal mortality rate. They are selected to be ‘low-risk’. That means that of the remaining 200 that deliver in Whitehaven, there is very unlikely to be any mortality – about one every five years.

“That explains why midwifery units are perceived to be safe. The 100 transferred out are however now high risk.

“The above views are entirely my own and I am more than happy to hear from anyone – and in particularly the Success Regime – why I have got this so very wrong.”